Whether Harris or Trump Are Elected, U.S. Foreign Policy Won’t Get More Humane. But Many Things Could Get Worse Here and Abroad.
Israel’s escalating war on Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon and its provocation of Iran serves Netanyahu's political survival and the expansionist goals of his allies. But if their goals or the October 7 Hamas attack were the primary precipitants, the murderous Israeli assault would have ended long ago, and the hostages would have already returned home. Neither Biden nor any past president served as an Israeli pawn. As with past wars, the Israeli siege was and remains a U.S. endeavor, not just because it is enabled by American weapons, but because it serves an almost century-long quest to project and protect American economic, political, and military power in the region.
While some Democratic politicians came, albeit too always late, to reject the Vietnam war, support for the Shah of Iran, or Bush’s Iraqi weapons of mass destruction lie, they did not abandon the essential goals of regional domination. And so, it remains still in 2024. U.S. foreign policy in the Levant has never been driven by a commitment to the safety of Jews or the protection of democracy. The failure of the Biden administration–as well as successive previous Republican and Democratic presidents– to restrain Israel’s expansionism is not an influence shortcoming. Instead, it demonstrates a policy goal. Terrorism–an inevitable response to resistance and yearning for freedom long denied–and Israel's escalating killing of innocents is the collateral damage the U.S. has been willing to accept in pursuit of dominance, the cost to Americans notwithstanding.
As a result, I don't expect a Harris administration to contradict decades of U.S. policy in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world. I do anticipate continued efforts to quash dissent with support from the outsized influence of AIPAC, right-wing billionaires, and emboldened Christian nationalist lobbies. Such repression has been the case with every challenge to entrenched power, from anti-war movements to labor and civil rights struggles. But in my lifetime, the successive elections of Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George Bush, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump taught me a stark lesson. No matter how dark the times, things can always get much worse.
In the darkness of the genocide in Palestine, increasingly destructive climate change, unending gun violence, punishing and persistent inequality, and other horrors, I keep in mind that there is a vast difference between the consistent repression and subjugation of twenty-first-century global capitalism and the unrestrained wealth-dominated fascism or dictatorship we can expect from another Trump presidency. The former is awful but somewhat constrained by constitutional protections, while the latter is not. George W. Bush was a neoliberal war monger but not a fascist. He conceded defeat. Trump is a fascist, would-be Supreme Court- and Republican congress-enabled dictator. In 2024, Democrats represent the former, current Republicans the latter.
The level of repression in the United States has waxed and waned in direct proportion to the level of challenge to the empowered. At least since the Civil War, movements for freedom and justice receded and surged–albeit with significant death and pain. Jim Crow, lynchings, the Red Scare, and McCarthyism were the zeniths of repressive power and the nadir of people power. Victories for peace and justice–all resulting from organizing broad movements– the reverse. Trumpism, with its avowed rejection of the law, celebration of hate and violence, and boldfaced embrace of repression of its opponents, is a new and far more dangerous threat than anything in modern times. Once in power, there is no telling how many years or decades their reign of terror will endure. Imagining restraint or the rise of repulsed Americans or politicians finding a conscience is, I think, evidence-free optimism. Surely, supporters of Palestinian freedom will not be exempt should Republicans triumph in November.
For those of us who struggle for an inclusive just democratic future here and in Palestine, the decisive strategic question is how to maintain our ability to struggle. I do not want to see my friends and family attacked by vigilante mobs, deported, jobless, or jailed. A Republican victory in November can set the struggle back decades and disastrously endanger too many people I care about.
Withholding votes from Democrats so that they lose close elections will indeed “teach them a lesson.” But the dangerously wrong one. Historically when Democrats lost, they shrank back in fear. They moved to the right not left. Strong progressive third parties did not emerge in the wake. Until we build a movement powerful enough to field strong primary challenges to Democrats and win, we will not have the power to influence policy in a progressive direction. In November, I will vote strategically for Democrats to preserve our ability to struggle. I will do so, unhappily but in good conscience.
Arthur taught and led science professional learning and curriculum and assessment development projects for 50 yrs. He writes about education and social justice. He loves spending time with friends and family, hiking, and gardening.
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